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The numbers chef

Published 24-Sep-1989 in the Denver Post
Copyright ©1989 by Ed Quillen. All rights reserved.

When I visited the laboratory of the Zeitgeist Research Institute recently, the most striking aspect was the rank aroma which reeked from a steaming cauldron.

Dr. Factor Fixx lifted the lid to examine the batch. Inside were roots, surds, logarithms, integrals -- all sorts of mathematical arcana. We always get this terrible odor when we're cooking numbers, he apologized.

Cooking numbers? I wondered.

He sighed. Some people call it doctoring results and others call it fudging, he explained. At any rate, the principle is quite simple.

At my puzzled look and wrinkled nose, Dr. Fixx stepped toward a blackboard. It works this way. You give us the result you wish to see, and we cook the numbers until we get that result.

You mean that if I want a scientific-sounding proof of a current notion, I come to you?

The scientist nodded. Precisely. We were the ones who proved conclusively in 1978 that day-care children are the happiest creatures under the sun. When Ronald Reagan said trees were the leading cause of air pollution in 1980, we cooked numbers about ketone emissions and showed that the Chinese elm in your yard was at least as lethal as a tank car of chlorine. Now, however, President Bush needs evidence to support his claim that trees are good for the atmosphere. Want to see our new data on oxygen replenishment and global temperature stability?

I shook my head. I don't need you or George Bush to tell me that I should like trees. What else are you up to?

We continue to work on second-hand cigarette smoke, he confessed. We still have no causal data to demonstrate that it is anything worse than an annoyance to non-smokers. But any day now, we shall generate some plausible numbers which demonstrate that it is a definite health hazard to be within 50 yards of anyone who has touched tobacco during the past fortnight. There is a considerable demand for such numbers, and we aim to cash in by meeting that demand first.

You guys seem fairly clever, I complimented. But didn't you get caught in the cholesterol campaign? I know a mathematician who checked the numbers which were supposed to demonstrate that some cholesterol-reducing drug lengthened lifespans. He couldn't get a 50 percent confidence level, let alone the 95 percent level claimed by the American medical establishment.

Dr. Fixx frowned severely. Again, we must look at the market forces. You must understand that a drug dealer is a drug dealer, whether legitimate or illegitimate.

The illegitimate ones hope to get you addicted to an expensive substance, so that you will be a source of steady income for them. The legitimate pharmaceutical houses are not all that different, except that they do not stand on street corners.

Then what do they do? I asked.

They hire me to cook numbers. With rigged statistics, they can frighten 50 million American men into believing that they are in immediate danger of heart attacks unless they take expensive drugs to reduce their cholesterol levels. Those scared men will each spend $75 on drugs each month for the remainder of their lives. That comes to $45 billion a year. Now that is an impressive number, is it not?

But you were just exposed, I pointed out.

He shrugged. We can always cook some new numbers. Then he ran to the cauldron, where a Bush request showed that a balanced federal budget would definitely result from cutting the capital-gains tax, and an NEA proposal demonstrated that acid rain would vanish utterly as soon as classroom sizes were reduced by 46 percent.

I planned to wait around and see the formal proof of how the Post's circulation would double if my pay were raised, but the smell started getting to me.


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