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Predicting the campaign course

Published 15 August 2004 in The Denver Post.
Copyright ©2004 by Ed Quillen. All rights reserved.

Although the regular opinion polls showed a near dead-heat in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate nomination, Ed's local yard sign survey successfully predicted the Coors landslide. There were many Pete Coors signs, but not a single sign, banner or even bumper sticker promoting Bob Schaffer.

On the Democratic side, there were some Mike Miles placards, but they were far outnumbered by the Salazar signs, so the yard survey was accurate there, too.

It's too early to use that method to predict the outcome of the general election for the next U.S. senator from Colorado, but it may be possible to predict the course of the campaign. Because our election could determine control of the U.S. Senate, millions of dollars will flow into our state to persuade us to vote against one candidate or the other, and we will be inundated with anonymous accusations and mysterious canards.

At first I figured that this election would be free of carpetbagger allegations, since both the Coors and Salazar families have been in Colorado for generations. But upon further thought, even that could be fabricated into an issue, and so we might see the campaign develop along these lines:

The Center for Draconian Immigration Enforcement yesterday charged that Ken Salazar, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, would be soft on illegal immigration, since there is no record that his great-great-grandfather, Francisco Esteban de Salazar, had entered the United States legally when he settled in the San Luis Valley in the 1850s.

A Salazar campaign spokesperson said that it was true that there was no record of immigration, since Antonio de Salazar started farming near Espanola, N.M., in 1714, long before there was a United States, so the issue was irrelevant.

However, she had an accusation of her own. While conceding that Adolf Coors, Peter's great-grandfather, had entered the United States legally in the 19th century, she stated that It is our understanding that young Adolf Coors left Prussia to avoid military conscription, and how can we entrust the security of our country to the descendant of a draft dodger? Further, what does this say about the family's true commitment to public service?

The Coors camp fired back, noting that many people currently in public service, such as Vice-President Dick Cheney, avoided the draft, and then switched the topic to Salazar's record as attorney general, charging that his office had defended the State Land Board in 2000 when it tried to sell land for $1,560 an acre when nearby parcels were going for $12,500 an acre. This shows his real attitude about getting a good deal for the hard-working taxpayers of Colorado.

Responding quickly, the Salazar spokesperson pointed out that the attorney general had a statutory duty to defend state agencies, then changed the topic. Ken Salazar will protect Colorado's water and keep it from going to other states. Contrast that to what Pete Coors does. His company exports millions of gallons of Colorado water to other states -- remember, every one of the 22 million barrels they sold last year holds about 31 gallons of precious Colorado water -- and they do this just to make money.

The Coors campaign staff defended the company, saying that the water loss was minuscule compared to the economic benefits for Colorado. Further, Every fresh potato from a Salazar farm is about 80 percent water. A ton of potatoes thus holds about 200 gallons of invaluable Centennial State water, and once it leaves, it's gone forever. We think it's time for Ken Salazar to come clean about how much water his family has exported over the years, and for him to quit talking about how he'll protect Colorado water. That's not a Colorado value.

A Salazar campaign representative asked What does a Coors know about Colorado values? Didn't they oppose it when Coloradans overwhelmingly supported statewide prohibition in 1916?

The Coors campaign office responded with a list of previous multi-millionaire U.S. senators from Colorado, dating back to statehood -- Jerome Chaffee, Horace Tabor, Simon Guggenheim, Lawrence Phipps, etc. -- and said this showed that Pete Coors represented traditional Colorado values.

And if any of these charges and counter-charges really occur this fall, remember, you read it here first.


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